Keep Running
First off, I'm really excited about the next generation - Generation Z. There's so much talk about Millennials that I think Generation Z has escaped the public eye.. for now. They're incredibly smart, self-aware and are really lucky to be growing up in the time that they are.Really? Now.. during a recession, political unrest, unstable times? Etc. Well.. it's hard for me to personally relate to various generational theories as someone born smack in between Gen X and Gen Y. But I will say that growing up in the 80's, high school in the 90's and entering the work force post dot.com crash meant that the world had great promise. I was fortunate to have missed out on having massive college debt.. but there was still this undertone that us Millennials - or my in-between peers had great promise. That we were going to save the world. Not just be ordinary - but be extraordinary. Beat the system. Excel. Except that other than having Facebook to share and complain - nothing in the world has really changed.
Gender inequality still exists and is a factor that can't be shaken off as those who rule the workforce come from older generations. White men still rule. Many people in power, whether economically or politically, still view those different than them as the "other" - failing to see how the problems of one group of people is a problem for us all. And various groups are still kept down through antiquated, false stereotypes and old unresolved, past battles.
But with this new generation - I believe it's all going to change. A life spent with literally the world at their fingertips has made them more worldly. Instead of pen pals, they literally have a window into someone else's world. In their eyes - will there be an "other?" They have little to stop them in whatever their endeavors. Do they want to code? They can look up a free video or website on how to do it? Become a photographer - download a $2 photo editing app? Learn a new language? The possibilities are endless. They're reaping what we've sowed - the free information that we've created. The insistence on gender neutral toys. The changing perceptions of what it means to eat healthy. What it even means to get an education.
I'm really excited about what's ahead.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjJQBjWYDTs]
Getting out of the Red - Red Lobster's Turn Around?
Ever since the NY Times wrote an article back in February on the eroding middle class effecting major restaurant chains, I've been interested in this phenomenon. How do companies survive and even shift their business towards the growing upper class without neglecting and even disappointing their base? Interestingly enough, many companies catering to the middle class were founded on the very principal of bringing that product to the masses - whether it was coffee (Folgers) or seafood (Red Lobster). What was once a luxury is now attainable. But over the last few decades, it wouldn't be a stretch to say many businesses have taken advantage of their middle class customer, sacrificing quality for cost, focusing heavily on promotions and hoping a gimmick would get people through the door. So beloved brands have become just another cheap deal - quantity over quality. With the conversation shifting from "I got this at X" to "I got this at X% off." Brands have fallen into a price war arms race, lowering the value of their products and brand. What once was a semi-annual special trip to a restaurant may now be a regular, monthly routine. Or once cherished clothing is now discarded with the seasons.Where has this gotten us? Americans are now more in debt, overweight, and it's safe to assume based on the rise of the self-storage industry, have more stuff than ever. Companies are struggling to keep up with customer quantity demands, hurting the environment and navigating murky labor practices as they continue to cut costs.
While they're struggling, a counter-trend is rising. Fast food is being out run by fast casual with sustainability-focused companies like Chipotle leading the charge. Even McDonald's has decided to rebrand. Online retailers focused on sustainability or ethically sourced materials like Zady, Accompany, Everlane and Warby Parker are popping up every day. And trendsetters like Millennials are shifting their spending - focusing on pure utility rather than the emotional benefits that come from owning a brand. For instance, car sharing companies have been proven to displace car sales. On a smaller scale, the growing number of subscription coffee services and even ingredient delivery services like Blue Apron show that people are choosing to forgo the prestige of eating and drinking out in order to save money - but they still want a high quality experience.
What do I predict will happen when brands like Red Lobster go back to their roots and offer the high quality experience they once did? First, they'll attract a whole new customer - the upper middle to upper class who may have even had positive associations with the brand from their childhood. Red Lobster may lose customers who were driven by discounts and deals but most importantly, their core customer - a true advocate of the brand - may learn to shift their budgets. What was once a cherished, special meal will become a special, occasional meal once again. Bringing Red Lobster out of the red.
The Future of Advertising - As Told Through My 2010 Miami Ad School Application
Inspired by Faris Yacob's recent post, I decided to re-read my Miami Ad School Planning Boot Camp application from June 2010. Four years later, my thoughts on how advertising will and should evolve has not changed. This thinking is even reflected in how I answered WARC's 2014 Admap Essay contest on building brands in the digital age, which I can proudly say they added me to the shortlist. Below is my response to one of the application questions - word for word (recently edited for readability and not content). I think many of these predictions will come true ahead of schedule.
How would you evolve the state of advertising to be successful in the year 2020?
CLIFF NOTES
1. Sophisticated customer tracking tools will play a critical role in which products and ads we serve to customers. Customers will be in control of their data and willingly share it in exchange for tailored products and marketing.
2. Ad agencies will be fully integrated with less silos between disciplines such as brand building, digital, innovation, mobile or even employee engagement.
3. The integrity of a product and organization will be paramount as increasing transparency pulls the curtain on what marketing can mask.
4. The role of advertisers will be to entertain, inspire, add value to your life or even serve as a community creator - fostering connections between likeminded individuals.
5. The need for strategic thinking, creativity and brand building won't go away.
In 2010, companies can already track their consumers through browser cookies, smartphones, social networking sites, online shopping, rating sites, and many more devices. By 2020, marketers will have more sophisticated measuring and monitoring tools to predict exactly what brands you relate to, down to the exact style of dress you want, before you even knew you wanted it. Consumers will profit from their private information by selling it to marketers, negating privacy issues. By 2020, I will never receive an ad that wasn’t meant for me.
In order for advertising to be successful in the year 2020, advertisers will need to change their organizational structure. They will need to rely heavily on strategic thinking and continue to develop their client’s brand. Most importantly, advertisers will need to work with clients to offer added value to the consumer, either through the ads themselves or products development. Ads will be engaging, entertaining and social.
Currently, most clients have a long roster of agencies: their digital agency may be based in Boulder while their AOR is in New York. Within an ad agency, coordinating every aspect of the process is challenging – even harder and less efficient when you’re working across multiple agencies. In order for advertisers to be successful in 2020, agencies need to go back to a time when all aspects of advertising were under one roof. The very definition of advertising will change to fall under the umbrella of communications and even innovation, blurring the lines between public relations, product innovation, entertainment and social media. Advertising agencies will become strategic think tanks, understanding their consumer and directing all other branches of the process; digital, print, television, web, media, etc. to interact with the particular consumer - based on their behavioral preferences. Collaborators from all stages of the process will sit in on the initial brain storming session so, for instance, the lead creative understands what the media team can do to execute their vision in the appropriate fashion. While this may resemble an in house agency, I believe it needs to remain separate in order to foster a culture of innovation, allowing strategists to pull inspiration from multiple sources and stay fresh. In keeping with the theme of integration and innovation, advertising agencies will be more horizontal and collaborative with the understanding that good ideas can come from anyone in the organization.
In addition to leading the strategic process, to be successful, advertisers will consult on all aspects of a client’s business that interact with consumers - from the retail floor to customer service, ensuring that the brand’s integrity is held throughout. With the rapid spread of information, there will be no room for disingenuous campaigns that falsely reflect the product or service. The ad agency will not create the retail experience but they will work closely to lead the firm that does.
Based on their strategic insights, advertisers will introduce the right products for the right people, popping up in their daily lives without being intrusive. It will aggregate information from your social networking sites, online persona and previous purchases to determine which brands you affiliate with and which potential new brands interest you. In fact, customers will be rewarded by points they can use to buy products for giving out more of their data – thus ensuring that products will be marketed to them more efficiently. Advertisers will turn into highly trained personal assistants, presenting you with your every need as you go about your daily life. Mobile and geo-location services will be key to alerting you what you need, when you need it and when you’re near it to get you to the purchase. Brands will create stronger communities as they are starting to do now – turning our global economy into a small town feel and giving people the connections that we all seek.
Advertisers will start conversations, entertain, challenge and excite their consumers. They will create social games that engage consumers with the brand. They will NOT be replaced by Google search or Facebook recommendations because consumers need that brand recognition (that comes in the form of advertising) to choose a brand out of the large sea of products. And brands need advertising to differentiate their product. As the tide is shifting now, the customer and advertiser will work together to create better products. This is how I would evolve the state of advertising to be successful in the year 2020.
Tipping Point
Last week, I stopped by a fruits and vegetable mini grocery store in my home town (suburban NJ) and was delighted to find veggie juice; i.e. kale, lemon, ginger, apple, etc. for only $4.50. I put it on the counter at the register and an older woman in her 60s said "What is that supposed to do?" And next to her was another older couple discussing their happiness at finding juice at Julio's (the store), mentioning that they were following some sort of diet by Dr. Oz. I explained to the woman that juice had tons of nutrients and that kale was awesome. It made me think, does this conversation mark what would be called a "tipping point?" Obviously healthy eating, juices and the idea of "alternative medicine" has been around since the 60s. It has gone slightly mainstream thanks to Whole Foods but could still be considered limited to a wealthier consumer or even younger demographic.My suspicions were confirmed a few days ago. The NY Times recently posted an article marking this shift. National food chains are offering healthier options at the demand of their consumers. We've reached a tipping point. Corporations are looking towards sustainability and even pharmacies are carrying fresh fruit. In the coming years, I believe there will be a societal pressure to eat healthy and live more sustainable just as we've pressured each other to quit smoking, wear seat belts, and not drink and drive. I'm hoping that the obesity epidemic, crazy weather and political strife around the world is one of those situations where it has to get worse before it gets better. Will everything will be uphill from here?
Trend Series: The Innocent Late 80's
I noticed this trend about five years ago. Suddenly black teenagers were modeling their hair and fashion after Kid 'n Play and The Fresh Prince, the more PG rappers of the late 80's to early 90's. My guess is that it's a defense towards racial profiling and the stereotype that most urban youth are violent, drug-dealing gang members. It's also a backlash towards the more violent, extreme rap. So like any planner should, I asked some friends to back up or dispute my hypothesis (something I will try to do with each trend spotting post).From my friend Jai Wilcher:
Indeed I am black and a dude and from BK, so I think I qualify toserve this panel. I think your DEAD ON with the observation as far as this trend goes, absolutely ... I honestly feel we can have a similar conversation in another 5 years ... and the end result would be close to if not the same, just goes to show the, dare I say "circular" evolution of the trend and the culture of hip hop.
I think now a days, things are extremely different than the way they used to be, image is still important, however the presentation has changed a ton and with that - the idea has altered as well. Gives the whole culture a cleaner, fresher more creative and artistic feel, conveys the same message, but in a more universal manner, I think. I also think those small, independent cells that were the "thinkers" or the "abstracts" those, De La Souls and A Tribe Called Quest and Poor Righteous Teachers version of hip hop advocates from the 80's that were seen as the back burner, weirdos of the movement are finally getting their shine on, and yes, I'd say Will "Fresh Prince" Smith as wellfalls into this category.
And from a good friend and former classmate, Dr. Shonda Lackey who's a clinical psychologist and freelance writer in NYC and who's conducted research on how racism and stigma can affect interpersonal relationships and health:
I hadn't noticed this trend, but in most cases, the way people dress often indicates something about the way they perceive themselves and how they want to be perceived by others. This is what fashion designers and brand marketers know. Some Blacks adopt a particular style of dress so as to deflect negative perceptions others might have of them. Others might adopt a style that challenges the status quo as racists will view Blacks in a negative manner regardless of how they present themselves. Yet, it can't be assumed that a Black is making a political statement based on his or her choice of clothing. The only way to really find out an individual's beliefs and values is to get to know him or her on the individual level.
So I think this is another great example of two aspects of account planning. The first is straight from art history 101; that visual trends; whether in fashion, architecture or design can be outlays of cultural shifts. The second is that once again, we can't categorize people (or our consumers) based on their age, race, location, etc. but must get deeper into understanding what their experiences and viewpoints are to better understand their culture.
Trend Series: Caffeine Culture
This is the first of what I hope will be a regular series where I explore trends that I've captured mostly through my iPhone.
As you may know from following my Instagram feed and reading my blog, I have a love / hate relationship with caffeine. Mostly love, of course. Starbucks was one of the first companies to develop a brand around coffee, modeling their in store experience after sophisticated European cafés. But with the saturation of Starbucks, the last few years have seen a distinct 180 shift from the Starbucks aesthetic. Perhaps due to the sea of chain restaurants, plastic, disposable and mass produced everything, we're desperately seeking more permanence. Growing coffee companies like Stumptown and Kaffe 1668 use the dim lighting of incandescent bare light bulbs, candles and mason jars to hark back to a time where the General Store dominated, long before mass production and globalization. But with the added conveniences of wifi and elegance of a Dwell-worthy spread. Patrons are reminded of the craftsmanship, personal touch and ritual that goes into caffeine consumption through porcelain cups and latté art. Baristas have become artists, identifying themselves by wearing the uniform of newsboy caps, vests and the occasional bright red lipstick to remind customers that they are part of the creative class.
In New York, the four dollar cup of coffee has held its ground despite our stagnant economy. Perhaps we use this perfectly poured cup of coffee to escape the realities of our fast moving world, filled with constant email pings and chatter of always being busy? Ironically this escapism is often ruined by the compulsion to document and share our coffee experiences through social media channels like Instagram, Facebook and Twitter.
In the last few years, it seems that Brooklynites are nearly obsessed with this pre World War II lifestyle. Can you spot some examples?
JWT 10 Trends For 2012
Are you just as excited as I am about all the trend reports for 2012? 2011 was such a tumultuous year and it brings to mind the idea that things have to get worse before they can get better. Well.. I'm hoping 2012 marks the year things get better. Most notably, I think there has been a breaking point in how much longer we will put up with a broken system, selfish politicians, people and corporations - a sentiment that's echoed throughout the world. And I'm hoping that 2012 is the year where we realize that selflessness, intelligently redistributing wealth and focusing on sustainable practices is good for everyone all around.Slowly but surely, American corporations are moving towards sustainability. In fact, it was reported in Ad Age today that Unilever is putting their $6 billion global account in review because "We want to make sure that we continue to have best-in-class agency partners to deliver Unilever's vision: to double the size of our business while reducing our environmental impact," Mr. Di Como said in a statement. "We will be looking at strategic planning and in-market execution capabilities from our agency partners."
And before you say that they're greenwashing, according to Climate Counts, a non profit, Unilever has the highest climate count score under Food Products for their climate footprint, reduction of global warming impact, support of climate legislation and their practice of publicly disclosing climate intentions and practices.
So I leave you with JWT's Annual Trends for 2012. I specifically hope the Rise of Shared Value #4 becomes mainstream. As we see with Unilever, Coke, Nike, Levi, L'Oreal, Clorox, GE, etc., companies can be both successful and environmentally sustainable. Now if only Apple could get on board.
Interview with Brand Anthropologist Richard Wise
Richard Wise is the resident Brand Anthropologist at the experiential marketing firm, Mirrorball. He received a masters at the University of Sorbonne in Paris and has spoken at various conferences, most recently the Future Trends Conference in Miami. You can follow him on Twitter @CultureRevealed or his Tumblr where he highights a plethora of interesting cultural trends and insights. As a cultural anthropologist, you approach planning from an intellectual, academic angle. How valuable is the study of cultural trends to brands?
Look at the list of problems brands bring you to solve. They almost always come back to cultural issues.
“Our franchise is aging and we’re starting to look dated.”
“People don’t talk about us as much as they used to.”
“People say we have an arrogant, out-of-touch image.”
“People don’t know what we stand for.”
So…you’re losing it with the group because what you stand for is no longer valuable to them – to their culture!
The thing about culture and brands that makes it so challenging is this; culture hides more than it reveals - and what it hides, it hides most effectively from its own participants. You can’t understand that fully unless you go live in another culture and, starting as an outsider, become an insider. Then you go back to the culture you came from and suddenly you can actually see all the hidden meaning. And this is true for people who work on brands and try to solve the cultural problems of the brands without actually understanding their own culture. They won’t get very far.
The opposite is wonderfully true. The more you make serving the culture your brand mission, the faster you will grow – and it will feed and feed on itself. While most companies have been stagnant or declining in the last ten years, Apple‘s revenues, profits and public valuation have grown vertiginously. It all started with the return of Steve Jobs and their publicly thanking their fans with the “Think Different” campaign.
There's a minor war in the advertising world between traditional agencies that tout their big idea thinking and a rigorous approach to research and smaller, digital agencies that are well versed in current digital trends. Who do you think will win the "war" and why?
Remember that pre-Internet classic, Ogilvy on Advertising? I always love to get free advice from Uncle David. He said in his charming book, published in 1985 by the way, that his best advice to young men and women in advertising would be to learn everything they can about direct response – because it’s the future of advertising. You can see what works and what doesn’t, you have to lean forward and sell, one person at a time, like Ogilvy did when he sold stoves door to door. He indeed saw it all coming and he was right.
So big agency, digital shop…everybody looks for evidence of what works, what’s surprising and fresh, what people really want to experience. And the only way to find that is to experiment. If you’re conducting meaningful experiments then you have as much of a chance as anybody of owning the future.
That being said, I like what Karl Marx said: “Every time the train of history goes around a corner, the reactionaries fall off.” The bigger you are, the more likely you are to be a reactionary. My heroes are guys like Ogilvy and Bernbach because they stayed humble and curious even as they got enormously successful. And I think Robert Greenberg is just like that too.
The race today goes to whoever likes to learn the most and is fast at it. But I like to think that, if you’re slow, but you love to learn, you may have an edge over the fast learner who’s arrogant.
What books, magazines and activities do you experience to remain on the cutting edge of cultural trends and developments?
The most important thing I do is read books that have nothing to do with marketing or brands but books about human nature and civilization. Most recently, I read two masterpieces of cultural anthropology: Becker’s [amazon_link id="0684832402" target="_blank" container="" container_class="" ]Denial of Death[/amazon_link] and Girard’s [amazon_link id="0826468535" target="_blank" container="" container_class="" ]Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World[/amazon_link]. I saw King Lear at the Public Library. I walked through the Frick Collection. I do this because it’s one of the best things I can do with myself. It always pays dividends in my work – provided I don’t directly seek them.
OK, then there’s thinking about marketing, brands and culture. Tumblr by itself is more than enough to be endlessly enriched, stimulated and provoked. If you curate the right list of people to follow you will be in the kitchen of emerging culture where it’s all being made right before your eyes. I read the Wall Street Journal, the paper itself, every day – my God, it’s so beautifully designed and it has amazing trend info. If you don’t have time for it, though, follow me on Twitter, I always tweet out their best stuff. I also love a couple of key websites: sciencedaily.com and psychologicalsciences.org. And I live in Bushwick – there’s something about the experience of living there, not being a tourist, that’s very valuable.
At the recent Future Trends conference, you gave a presentation on two cultural phenomena, FameUs, and AnonymUs, showing how everyone wants to be famous while at the same time, wants to contribute to the greater good. Are these attributes just two different sides of the same consumer or completely different targets?
I don’t believe that trend work should be some kind of glossy PC channeling of the Zeitgeist. It should describe what is really going on. I also believe that for every trend, there is a countertrend. So here’s how I apply that with the shift taking place in our public and private selves.
On the one hand, FameUs describes the ever-widening sense of intimacy we have with our celebrities, the feeling of control we have over their self-expression and the growing conviction that we ourselves are going to be famous.
Its countertrend is AnonymUs - the growing conviction that so much of social media is communal narcissism, the impulse to unplug from a culture of celebrity worship, and the spiritual inspiration to lose oneself in pursuing a greater social good.
How we experience and live in these trends varies from one person to the next. You can be your own Lady Gaga 24/7. Or you can wear unbranded vintage clothing that you bought at The Cure while you volunteer at the Homeless Shelter. And, just to keep things interesting, you can try to live in both trends simultaneously like the cast of Dr. Drew’s Celebrity Rehab. Same thing for brands – they, too, can go to Rehab like Domino’s Pizza did, to great success, improving their store sales by 10% in one year.
The recent New York article The Kids Are Actually Sort of Alright, shares some of your findings about Millennials thinking they'll be famous someday while focusing on their reality as unemployed and disillusioned with the system. How can brands target these consumers given our current economic climate?
OK, suppose we’re Westinghouse or Maytag. Why don’t we open stores for refurbished vintage home appliances? They did it with manufacturer’s certified “pre-owned” automobiles. Why not fridges and stoves from the different decades? Why not train people in all these stores on how to refurbish vintage appliances? That would create local jobs. The appliances would look great. And you’d be reclaiming, not just sending things to the dump. I think there’s a lot of opportunities like that if brands would ask: how do I create jobs, how do I distribute my brand idea and logistics locally, how do I own not just what I make but what I have made?
As advertisers, working in trend setting cities like New York, San Francisco, Portland, etc. how can we be sure that our observations on trends reflect the viewpoints of the rest of the country? Should brands look to be ahead of the curve or eye to eye with consumers?
Go live in your trendy neighborhood – you want to see what’s coming next. But here are some suggestions, based on my personal experience, on how to avoid becoming nothing but a snob. Truth in advertising: I am a snob but I am not JUST a snob. Sign up for thankless volunteer jobs. Go to a regular, old-fashioned church and listen and learn. Call your Mom and find a way to be of service to her. Try to avoid gossiping about anybody for one day. Take a cross-country drive and hang out at truck stops. These are all intrinsically good things to do but they will also help you in your work.
Finally, can you give young planners with varying backgrounds advice on how to incorporate cultural anthropology into their research and brief writing process?
Show respect for the dignity of your fellow human beings but try not to be so PC. PC is the sanctimony of our time. Sanctimonious people don’t make very good art nor do they write very good briefs. Be curious, humble and open-minded. Always give into your curiosity and don’t be afraid to admit you don’t understand why people behave a certain way or prefer a certain brand.
Recent Cultural Trends
I've recently piled all my stuff that was in a storage, into my parent's house in NJ as discussed in my other blog Wandering & Pondering here. The process of going through boxes I packed last August had me thinking about how my "stuff" plays a part in defining who I am. While I was in San Francisco, I felt weightless, flying across country with only 3 suitcases including a refined version of my wardrobe, a few books and of course my computer. There was the possibility of a new beginning. But as I leafed through my books after taking them out of their boxes a few weeks ago, I realized that the objects we collect have an imprint on us - there's a give and take. A quick scan through my bookshelf reminds me of different periods of my life and ongoing interests, from my obsession with Italian Renaissance history to non-fiction science and history. I was inspired to revise the plot to my novel in progress, delve into an old box full of one hundred year old family photos and newspaper articles, and even unload some books to de-clutter.A few times last week, I discussed wanting to have a huge, built in bookshelf in my future apartment when I finally decide to "settle," despite probably eventually getting a Kindle or iPad. I visited a friend who lives in a classic Upper West Side apartment with just that, passed down through her family. I scanned someone's bookshelf who had recently moved after living in one spot for nearly a decade. He declared that he would limit his book collection to this one shelf and would only keep books that were worthy enough for it. And then I met an incredibly interesting, intelligent philosophy teacher who declared that one should never throw a book away because you never know when you'll want to find a quote or read it again. Then ironically, yesterday, I opened the printed version of The New York Times to this article, about interior design firms that curate book collections for their clients. The Times points out that "as it happens, the-book-as-relic was forecasted by marketers. Ann Mack, director of trend-spotting for JWT New York, the marketing and advertising agency, noted in her trend report for the coming year that “objectifying objects,” she said, “would be a trend to watch.”
Quoting from her report, she added: “Here’s what we said: ‘The more that objects become replaced by digital virtual counterparts — from records and books to photo albums and even cash — watch for people to fetishize the physical object. Books are being turned into decorative accessories, for example, and records into art.’ ”
Maybe that's why Moleskin's have become so popular. Most of my thinking is done on a computer but I prefer to put my extra special, private thoughts in my Moleskin. Despite the convenience of digital, physical objects have a power and energy all their own.
For more interesting trend forecasting, you can check out this JWT Slideshare document here.